Japan: The anchor is lifting

For decades, Japan has acted as a quiet anchor for global interest rates. Extremely low domestic yields, large capital outflows and persistent demand for long-duration assets have helped suppress both risk-free rates and term premia worldwide. That anchor is now changing, with potential implications for long-term portfolio construction.
The large and broadly similar movements in global interest rates following the Iran conflict have partly shifted attention away from more structural forces shaping global markets. One such force, often overlooked, is the gradual weakening of Japan’s role as a global anchor for interest rates. Japan’s current economic path suggests that the long period of stagnation is gradually coming to an end. Demographic developments have led to labour shortages, forcing firms to adopt more dynamic strategies and improved governance. Wage growth has picked up meaningfully in recent years, with annual wage settlements exceeding 5 percent and base salary increases reaching
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